Get to Know CS2’s New Update (Season 3)

16 July 2025

The new update is here. Season 2 is over. Season 3 is on - and it brings important changes that affect the skin market. Here’s a simple look at the main changes, risks, and what to keep in mind.

Austin Major Souvenir Charms

Souvenir package charms from the Austin Major can now be sold on the market. They are priced between $10 and $20, with some going higher. Buy orders are often lower, so there’s a spread you can profit from.

But there are clear risks. To get these charms, you have to open souvenir packages. This almost always loses money over time. Even so, the update adds a new way to earn by selling charms directly.

While some charms are selling well, buyers need to balance this with the package cost and price swings. The market is promising but unstable.

Opening Souvenir Packages

Opening souvenir packages is the only way to get charms. This approach has pros and cons.

Pros:

- Chance to get charms worth $10–$20

- New market listing option for profit

Cons:

- Long-term unboxing usually loses money

- Package prices often don’t justify unboxing

- Short-term hype can fade fast

It’s gambling. The prices look good now, but repeated opening will likely lose money unless demand spikes or Valve changes drop rates.

Austin Sticker Capsules

Austin sticker capsules have seen changes in ROI. Returns are falling a bit because Valve hasn’t yet run the usual 75% off sale that often boosts the market.

This sale is likely soon. When it happens, capsule prices will drop, but lower prices can mean better ROI from unboxing and reselling. Expected 75% off capsule sale.

Watch capsule prices in the coming days. A sale can change the market fast.

The 75% Off Sale

Valve often pairs sales with updates. The 75% off sale is seen as a big profit chance. Cheaper capsules mean cheaper unboxing. ROI can jump if resold well.

But there's a risk. The sale changes supply and demand. Timing matters, as investors will try to act quickly.

Acting fast can help. But not all capsules will give the same returns, and trade holds can reduce profits.

Valve’s Major CS2 Update

Valve announced this update for July 14. It signals shifts in item values:

- Ends CS:GO Season 2, which can change demand

- Possible XM1014 shotgun removal

- Other unknown item changes

Valve’s updates can be unpredictable. Investors should review holdings but avoid betting too hard on rumors.

Season 2 ending might cause buying or selling waves as people react to new content or removals.

Focus on the Armory

The armory is in focus. Many think changes are coming. Price movements suggest people expect items to be removed.

ROI numbers are up for many items:

- Elemental Craft Stickers show 154% ROI

- Character Craft, Sport and Field, and charms also top 100%

This shows investors betting on removals that would raise prices. But this hype is risky. Prices might be inflated before details are clear.

Unboxing as an Investment

High ROI on some items makes unboxing tempting. If items are removed, they get scarce, boosting prices.

But:

- No confirmed removals mean prices could fall back

- Unboxing is random and expensive

Waiting for clearer info is safer. Jumping in now can lead to losses.

Elemental Craft Stickers

These stickers stand out. A 154% ROI signals strong demand. They’re popular for looks and rarity, making them valuable for customizing skins.

Their consistent use keeps interest up. They’re a key focus for investors right now.

Other Stickers and Charms

Besides Elemental Craft, other stickers show good returns:

- Character Craft and Sport and Field stickers have ROI over 100%

- Charms gained value after the update

These options don’t match Elemental Craft’s top ROI but spread risk with more variety.

Risks of Buying Now

Buying items right before or during the update has risks:

- Hype can inflate prices

- No guarantee on removals or changes

- Possible price drop if the market corrects

Waiting can avoid buying at inflated prices.

Main risks:

- Overpaying from hype

- Holding items if removals don’t happen

- Volatility reducing liquidity

XM1014 Shotgun Warning

There’s talk of XM1014 being removed. But investing heavily now is risky. Past cases like the Deagle saw prices spike then crash.

XM1014 has lower supply than the Deagle but could see similar price drops. Be cautious.

Fever Case

The Fever Case is popular for unboxing. It brings steady money for Valve. It’s unlikely to be removed now. This makes it a more stable choice for investors.

Gallery Case

The Gallery Case is different. Supply is capped and earned through grinding. This limited supply makes it appealing.

If removed, its price could jump. But it could stay in circulation, leading to price drops.

Risk/Reward:

- Removed soon: strong profit chance

- Not removed: price might drop

Best approach is to wait for removal signs before investing heavily.

Rare Cases Market

Rare cases are seeing price surges:

- Snakebite case is near $1

- Prisma, Danger Zone, Clutch cases have jumped

This rebound shows strong demand. Scarce supply supports higher prices. Rare cases look like safer bets than more volatile armory items.

Sticker Capsules ROI During Sale

The 75% off sale is a chance to boost ROI:

- Normal ROI is around 25%

- Sale can raise ROI much higher

But there are issues:

- 7-day trade hold delays sales

- Not all capsules are $1, so ROI varies

- Contender Sticker Capsule stands out with 46% base ROI, rising even higher in a sale

Sale buying has profit potential but comes with timing risks.

Trade Hold Impact

Capsules bought in the sale can’t be sold for 7 days. This locks money and exposes you to price swings.

There’s no way around this. It cuts margins and increases risk.

Best Capsule Choice

The Contender Sticker Capsule is the best pick now:

- 46% base ROI

- 16 stickers spread risk

- Strong upside in the sale

It balances reward and risk better than most capsules.

Managing Risks in Capsule Buying

Before buying, consider:

- Price changes during trade hold

- Many stickers reducing profits

- Market changes after the sale

Spreading buys or waiting for clearer trends can help reduce losses.

Key Armory Items to Watch

Items with strong demand and price support:

- Elemental Craft Blue Stickers

- Character Craft Blue Stickers

- Light Blue Skins

These items could hold or gain value if they get removed or stay popular.

New Skin Odds

Odds of unboxing skins have changed. Cheaper skins may now offer better ROI.

Rarer skins might not rise as much. Watch odds before buying.

Don’t Buy Too Soon

Buying now is risky. Prices often spike from hype but drop if Valve delays or changes plans.

Past buying during hype has caused losses. Waiting for confirmed changes can save money.

Biggest Market Movers

- Key movers from this update:

- Elemental Craft Stickers with strong ROI

- Rare cases seeing big price jumps

- Gallery and Fever Cases with uncertain futures

- Austin Major souvenir charms now tradable

These are the main things affecting prices now.

How to Invest Smarter in CS2

Focus on basics over hype. Watch Valve’s timing, rarity, and supply.

Being patient and tracking sales and prices will help you make better choices.